What began as a regionally contained flare-up has now evolved into a systemic global shock, forcing governments worldwide to reassess exposure.
Oil is repricing. Hormuz transit is collapsing. LNG supply is disrupted. Global inflation risks are rising again.
For Africa, the core threat is clear:
An imported inflation and liquidity shock.
Fuel subsidies, FX reserves, food and fertilizer supply chains, and infrastructure projects are all now under severe pressure.
Our intelligence brief outlines three possible scenarios (including a sustained siege and a potential Hormuz closure) and the immediate actions governments and businesses should consider to mitigate downside risk.
Africa is not on the battlefield, but it sits squarely in the transmission belt.
Full brief available here.
